We were as far down to five cooks last year. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. They run the gamut from. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. I believe in a time cycle. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. At least Biden is honest, he said. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. Right now, its horrible. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Im looking at both sides of it. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. I trust the system implicitly, he said. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. bellwether. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. Were a service industry-oriented area. On . I think its very political right now, honestly. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. Jacobs said she absolutely intends to vote in person on Nov. 3. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. And we just want that to continue. It will cycle through. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . SACRAMENTO . The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. But thats not the picture I look at. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. Im not even sure what direction were going.. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. Its horrible. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. Peoples common sense level is cooked. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. I would never vote any other way. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. Nothing is free, Hawker said. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. I got a life. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. People need to get a job, get out and work. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. 'I Should Start Voting'. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. I dont think you should take that away from me.. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Bremer County, Iowa The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. I kind of keep in my bubble. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. Weve never done that before.. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Its too big. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. He considers Trump pro-life. Republican Gov. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. Jim Hoft. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. And its never going to come back.. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. I think we needed somebody like him.. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. Its just stupid, she said. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! Required fields are marked *. The morale of the people up there is bad. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. I find that hard to believe. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). I think all politicians are crooks. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. I am under that impression. And it can happen.. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. We believe that there are two main reasons. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. The counties are also mostly small and rural. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." I just want Trump in. He says Democratic Gov. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. Theres too much mishandling, she said. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). He isnt so sure about Biden. Soon, he lost his union membership because he had no money to pay the dues. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. Two states have announced recounts. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties.
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