Based on an average daily volume of 5,600,000 shares, the days-to-cover ratio is currently 2.1 days. I'm on twitter @edmundingham. All generate blockbuster <$1bn per annum sales - in Stelara's case >$9bn per annum, and in Enbrel's case, >$4.5bn. Free Stock Analysis Report: See The True Value of Any Stock, The Best Strategy For Your Small Trading Account. What is the dividend yield for AbbVie? AbbVie product revenues by quarter and year since FY20. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. The 21 analysts offering 1 year price forecasts for ABBV have a max estimate of and a min estimate of . MarketRank is calculated as an average of available category scores, with extra weight given to analysis and valuation. I hope to see you there. Since then, ABBV stock has decreased by 3.4% and is now trading at $156.06. Pharmaceuticals are often valued based on a philosophy of "jam tomorrow" as opposed to jam today i.e. On average, they predict the company's stock price to reach $161.12 in the next year. In the past I have written about the high level of competition between major Pharma in the auto-immune space - for example, for Psoriatic Arthritis the list of approved drugs includes Humira, UCB Pharma's Cimzia, Amgen's Enbrel, Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) Stelara, Eli Lilly's (LLY) Talzt, Novartis' (NVS) Cosentyx and Bristol-Myers Squibb's (BMY) Orencia. AbbVie's Dividend and Valuation. View the latest news, buy/sell ratings, SEC filings and insider transactions for your stocks. As such, I have decreased my own expectations for 2022 based on simply doubling H1'22 revenues to get a FY22 figure, and downgrading growth expectations to 3% per annum until 2026. In my opinion, based on the current portfolio, AbbVie shares look undervalued below $160, but the upside above that price is limited, unless management is able to commercialize more products between now and the end of the decade, in order to achieve what looks like a very ambitious goal in driving high-single-digit revenue growth in the second half of this decade. Thus, it is likely that ABBV will continue to find support on the dips in this type of market environment.. View analysts price targets for ABBV or view top-rated stocks among Wall Street analysts. The firm's revenue for the quarter was up 1.6% compared to the same quarter last year. Other products such as Mavyret and Creon appear to have many more years of blockbuster sales ahead of them, although it is interesting to note that AbbVie no longer reports revenues from its Women's Health division, and scarcely mentions it. Compare Top Brokerages Here. For ABBVIE INC stock forecast for 2023, 10 predictions are offered for each month of 2023 with average ABBVIE INC stock forecast of $156.58, a high forecast of $160.07, and a low forecast of $152.24. Allergan was a troubled company in many ways, but there is no doubting the strength of its products and pipeline. Botox accounts for the bulk of the companys Aesthetics portfolio revenue and about 4% of the net as of 2022. AbbVie projected sales - immunology (my forecasts and assumptions). Abbvie Inc quote is equal to 152.710 USD at 2023-02-27. Retail sales were up but so was inflation which meant more volatility for stocks. In the next year, analysts expect Free Cash Flow to reach $26.97B - an increase of 58.68%. Under the terms of the resolution, AbbVie will grant Alvotech a non-exclusive licence to its Humira-related patents in the US, which will begin on 1 July 2023. View AbbVie's Short Interest. Export data to Excel for your own analysis. That same month, the FDA extended the review period for Skyrizi (risankizumab), a treatment drug for moderate to severe Crohns disease in patients aged 16 and older. I believe AbbVie is likely 15 - 20% undervalued at current price. 2022 Cable News Network. It should be noted that the strength of the competition AbbVie faces from other Pharma's desperate to claim a larger share of the immunology markets after Humira's LOE is fierce - Eli Lilly's (LLY) Olumiant, Pfizer's (PFE) Zeljanz, Amgen's Otezla, Bristol Myers Squibb's (BMY) Zeposia, Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) Tremfya, Novartis' (NVS) Cosentyx and Regeneron (REGN) / Sanofi's (SNY) Dupixent to name a few. Aurora Cannabis Revenue Forecast for 2023 - 2025 - 2030. Insiders that own company stock include Azita Saleki-Gerhardt, Brian L Durkin, Carlos Alban, Carrie C Strom, Carrie C Strom, Elaine K Sorg, Henry O Gosebruch, Jeffrey Ryan Stewart, Laura J Schumacher, Michael Severino, Perry C Siatis, Richard A Gonzalez, Robert A Michael, Roxanne S Austin, Scott T Reents, Timothy J Richmond and Timothy J Richmond. Based on earnings estimates, ABBV will have a dividend payout ratio of 54.11% next year. The company also successfully completed the acquisition of Syndesi Therapeutics SA in March. It now expects full-year profit in the range of $13.92-$14.12 a share. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. (JPM Healthcare conference presentation), Skyrizi's performance has been particularly eye-catching. Although the company has admitted that 2023 earnings will likely be down in 2022 - guidance for last year is for earnings per share ("EPS') of $13.84 - $13.88 on an adjusted diluted basis, versus $12.7 in 2021 - Gonzalez and his team were making some bold promises to investors at this year's JP Morgan Healthcare conference. Always do your own research on a stocks price performance and predictions before making an investment. AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) has a market capitalization of $276.13 billion and generates $58.05 billion in revenue each year. As I have mentioned in previous notes, however, the gains owe more to price hikes than sales volumes, and come 2023 and the LOE, even AbbVie admits the blow to revenues will be substantial. Duodopa is approved for Parkinson's Disease but Gonzalez believes that the subcutaneous non-surgical delivery system of candidate ABBV951 can "significantly expand the patient population currently addressed by Duopa", and sees the drug as yet another future blockbuster. First of all, as shown in the table above I forecast product sales out to 2030. Johnson & Johnson is rushing toward a patent cliff but a new shelf offering registration suggests itis gearing up for acquisitions. In the last four years, Johnson & Johnson's Free Cash Flow has fallen from $18.53B to $17.00B - a 8.28% decrease. I haven't included Epcoritamab sales in my forecasts this time, but I hope to adjust the table before Q3'22 results are announced. Date. Skyrizi - which inhibits the activities of IL-23 - a naturally occurring cytokine that is involved in inflammatory and immune responses - and Rinvoq - a member of the janus kinase inhibitor drug class - fit this profile. To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. All rights reserved. On average, they expect the company's stock price to reach $161.12 in the next twelve months. Post-spin, AbbVie emerged as a research-based biopharma that has more than doubled in size. AbbVie made the bold decision to take on a heavy debt load and bid for Allergan, with the deal being completed in 2020. Although Wallet Investor did not provide targets for 2030, its longer-term Abbvie stock prediction expected the price to hit $300.386 in June 2027. AbbVie Stock: ABBV Overview and Dividend Potential, Wall Street Sees 23% Upside In Revance, Maker Of Botox Competitor (ABBV), Analyst Confidence in Eli Lilly Boosted by Product Pipeline (ABBV), Johnson & Johnson: Taking The Bull By The Horns? AT&T Inc. (T) stock forecast and price target Find the latest AT&T Inc. T analyst stock forecast, price target, and recommendation trends with in-depth analysis from research reports. It . In the last two years, Aurora Cannabis's Revenue has fallen from C$245.54M to C$245.25M - a 0.12% decrease. Shares of ABBV stock can be purchased through any online brokerage account. Morningstar: 2019 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Pessimistic target level: 151.42 Optimistic target level: 154.48 ABBV (ABBV) Monthly Stock Prediction for 2023 Full forecast for 2023 AbbVie forecast for this year Receive ABBV Stock News and Ratings via Email. It's hard to argue against Skyrizi and Rinvoq's performance to date, however, and with the total addressable market across all immunology indications likely well in excess of $100bn, I feel fairly comfortable that AbbVie can grow this division's revenues even as the world's biggest ever selling drug exits stage left. The company projects the U.S. toxin market (where Botox is the top product) will decline by mid-single digits. Investors needn't panic however - Humira's replacements are expected by AbbVie's CEO to generate even higher revenues per annum. AbbVie has been working hard to ensure the 2 drugs it has developed to replace Humira - Skyrizi, which inhibits the pro-inflammatory cytokine IL23, and Rinvoq, a Janus Kinase (enzymes involved in immune cell function) inhibitor - are winning approvals and growing sales in Humira's markets. For the next year, analysts predict that Free Cash Flow will reach 6.91B - an increase of 1.94%. Finally, eye-care - another division inherited from Allergan - has been performing well for AbbVie although I am not expecting particularly strong growth from the current product portfolio. Since its 2013 separation from Abbott Laboratories (ABT 1.78%), AbbVie's stock has grown more than 160%. AbbVie will have to drop its price point to compete with the generics however, plus there is the 10% of the market it is not covered for, so an overall 20% decline in revenues in 2023 seems accurate. How often does AbbVie pay dividends? I have been maintaining a revenue forecasting table for AbbVie's products which I have amended based on Q2'22 and H1'22 results, and the slightly downgraded guidance issued for 2022 - management now expects adjusted earnings per share ("EPS") of $13.78 - $13.98, representing growth of 17% at the midpoint. That figure suggests a forward Price to Earnings ("P/E") ratio of ~10x, which is well below the US Big Pharma sector average of ~23x, although it should be noted that the GAAP/non-adjusted EPS may be only significantly lower than the adjusted figure, based on adjusted EPS of $6.52 across H1'22, and GAAP EPS of $3.03 over the same period. In this post I model AbbVie product sales to 2030 - including pipeline assets - and use discounted cash flow analysis to calculate a present day share price target. AbbVie's Q2'22 earnings threw up some positives and negatives for investors to contemplate. Myelofibrosis has proved to be a tricky indication for drug developers and there are no wholly satisfactory solutions on the market at present, therefore if approved I would expect Navitoclax - a drug that AbbVie has been working on for some time - to generate a couple of billion dollars in peak sales. A hold rating indicates that analysts believe investors should maintain any existing positions they have in ABBV, but not buy additional shares or sell existing shares. GSK Free Cash Flow Forecast for 2023 - 2025 - 2030. (AbbVie JPM Healthcare conference presentation). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Bhd., AbbVie Sp. AbbVie Oncology Division Forward Revenue Projections (my table and assumtpions). Ltd., AbbVie Pty Ltd, AbbVie Purchasing LLC, AbbVie Real Estate Management GmbH, AbbVie Research B.V., AbbVie Resources Inc., AbbVie Resources International Inc., AbbVie Respiratory LLC, AbbVie S. de R.L., AbbVie S.A., AbbVie S.A., AbbVie S.A.S., AbbVie S.R.L., AbbVie S.r.l., AbbVie S. r.l., AbbVie SA, AbbVie SAS, AbbVie SIA, AbbVie Sarl, AbbVie Sdn. Other approved ADC's targeting the c-Met protein, a validated target in NSCLC, include Novartis Tabrecta, which has been pegged for peak sales of ~$1.5bn, which seems a realistic target for Teliso given how large the lung cancer market is - the largest of all oncology markets. The S&P 500 (US500) lost 9.1%, the Dow Jones (US30) slid 9.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 23% during the same period. Compare your portfolio performance to leading indices and get personalized stock ideas based on your portfolio. 8.05% AbbVie's total revenue grew a solid 51% to $50.2 billion over the last twelve month period, compared to $33.0 billion in 2019. The company reported $3.60 EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $3.54 by $0.06. These are mostly related to the US Food and Drug Administrations (FDA) approval of Abbvies drug Rinvoq for ulcerative colitis and positive top-line results from the Phase 3 induction study U-EXCEL. The difference between trading assets and CFDs. Today, AbbVie operates as a diversified multi-national pharmaceutical company with a patient-centric approach to research. PMeds are designed not only to target the specific causes of diseases, often at the genetic level, but the patients that are most likely to benefit from them. As of February 15th, there was short interest totaling 11,710,000 shares, an increase of 13.7% from the January 31st total of 10,300,000 shares. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Investors do not seem to be taking the bait, however, as AbbVie's share price has slipped by >7% across the past month, and >5% across the past 5 days. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Please. Information is provided 'as-is' and solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes or advice, and is delayed. AbbVie is one of the largest global Pharmaceuticals, with a market cap of >$265bn. My EPS figure increases slightly between 2022 and 2023, whilst AbbVie has suggested it will be down slightly before beginning to accelerate towards the end of the decade, as revenues correspondingly begin to climb sharply once the worst of the Humira LOE is over. It should be noted however that, with ~$12bn near-term debt falling due, and long-term debt of ~$61bn - most of it due to the $66bn acquisition of Allergan, completed in 2020, AbbVie has some hefty interest expense payments to make - $15bn between 2022 and 2027, I estimate, and the level of debt makes it tough for the company to invest in M&A deals. Capital Com is an execution-only service provider. Trading CFDs is high risk and is not suitable for everyone. All times are ET. Receive regular, detailed analysis focused on biotech and healthcare stocks. The company originated as the bio-pharma segment of Abbott Laboratories and was spun off in late 2012. I do much more than just articles at Haggerston BioHealth: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. Within the oncology division sales of Imbruvica fell 17% year-on-year. Sales are expected to recover in H2'22, however, and forecast year-on-year growth. RHHBY vs. ABBV: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option? AbbVie says it will pay down debt of $4bn in 2023, which will "bring cumulative debt pay down ~$34bn", but the company is heavily reliant on maintaining an investment grade rating. AbbVie has said it expects to generate high-single-digit CAGR growth from 2025 to the end of the decade after revenues fall in 2023 due to Humira LOE. Furthermore, it seems sales of Lupron and Synthroid have joined the "All Other" section, which has generated $2.2bn of revenues in the first half of 2022, versus $1.5bn in the first half of 2021. losed Joint Stock Company FinTech Solutions, Fidelity NASDAQ Composite Index Tracking Stock Fund, Abbvie stock price analysis: Past year performance, Abbvie fundamental analysis: Q1 2022 earnings, Abbvie stock forecast: Company guidance and analysts predictions. Read the conference call transcript. The firm earned $15.12 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $15.30 billion. That is a significant difference because at a forward P/E of 10x AbbVie stock looks like a solid buy opportunity, but at a P/E of 20x, when we consider the risk/challenge of Humira's LOE, prospective investors may prefer to maintain a watching brief as opposed to opening a position. Price target. Fortunately for AbbVie shareholders Gonzalez and his management team have had many more years than expected to prepare for Humira's Loss of Exclusivity ("LOE"), and it has never been the Pharma's ambition to build its business around a single, all-conquering but time-limited drug. AbbVie's post-Humira LOE plans are not riskless, and its targets are ambitious, but nevertheless I see no harm in picking up shares in the Pharma at the current price, accepting a generous 4% dividend, and likely benefitting from share repurchases and a steadily growing share price until 2030. Psoriatic arthritis is also adding significantly to Skyrizi's momentum, where we are now approved in 54 countries. Management has previously stated that it expects total revenues to decline in 2023 following the Humira LOE, followed by a return to growth in 2024, and a "high single digit CAGR" maintained through the remainder of the decade. There are still very few approved therapies, although that could change with Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) / Vertex (VRTX) Sickle Cell Disease therapy leading the charge in 2023. The company has a robust pipeline of new products that are in some stage of clinical trials. The company is a member of the Fortune 100 and one of the Fortune 100s Best Companies To Work For. I have plugged my revenue expectations into this table knowing that they closely match AbbVie management's own expectations based on what they have said in public. Payout ratios above 75% are not desirable because they may not be sustainable. AbbVie declared a quarterly dividend on Thursday, February 16th. The acquisition expanded AbbVies neuroscience portfolio, adding first-in-class modulators of the synaptic vesicle protein 2A, including lead molecule SDI-118 currently in Phase 1b studies. AbbVie's success - as its shareholders will doubtless be aware - stems from the runaway success of its immunology drug Humira, which is indicated for a range of autoimmune conditions, including Rheumatoid Arthritis, Psoriatic Arthritis, Psoriasis, Crohn's Disease, Ulcerative Colitis, Hidradenitis Suppurativa and Ankylosing spondylitis. Although management reminded analysts that "Imbruvica continues to be the total market share leader across all lines of therapy in CLL", the outlook does not look especially promising. (my tables). Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. The lowest target is $136.35 and the highest is $210. AbbVie is a leader in ESG and sustainability. On the negative side of things, we can see that AbbVie is no longer breaking out sales within its Women's Health division, with revenues lumped into the "all other section, presumably. . You should do your own research and never invest money you cannot afford to lose. The average analyst rating for AbbVie stock from 34 stock analysts is "Buy". This would represent an increase of 1.78%. When I began this post it was in my mind to give AbbVie stock a "Hold" rating owing to an underwhelming - on some levels - set of Q2'22 earnings, some concerns around high revenue generating products such as Imbruvica, Juvederm, and Restasis, the disappearance of the Women's Health division, the imminent LOE for Humira and the high levels of debt. The official website for the company is www.abbvie.com. Sales of the drug reached $19.9bn in 2018 and were $19.2bn, $19.8bn and $20.6bn in 2019, 2020, and 2021 respectively. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. I also considered the long-term outlook for a company that is still only 10 years old and is about to feel the impact of a loss of patent protection for its mega-blockbuster auto-immune drug Humira, which made $20.7bn of sales for the company in FY21, representing 37% of total revenues generated. With no LOEs on the horizon, it is relatively plain sailing for the company ex-Humira, and the performance of Skyrizi and Rinvoq - to date at least - suggests management does have this massive patent cliff covered. As we can see the immunology division consists of only 3 assets yet by my calculation, will likely account for 50% of AbbVie's revenues in 2022 (to calculate 2022 sales revenues by product, since we do not yet have final figures, I have used 9m 2022 figures and assumed Q4 revenues will be the average of the previous 3 quarters). AbbVie updated its FY 2024 earnings guidance on Friday, February, 10th. Since then, however, the stock price has fallen 18% to. If you rely on the information on this page then you do so entirely on your own risk. Partnerships are with universities, medical facilities, research organizations and other pharmaceutical companies. Neurology also looks strong although aesthetics, eye care and oncology have something to prove. approvals of Humira, Skyrizi, Rinvoq (AbbVie JPM Healthcare conference presentation). According to 34 stock analysts, the average 12-month stock price forecast for AbbVie stock is $166.14, which predicts an increase of 7.62%. How do I arrive at my share price target? Slide from JPM Conference 2022 presentation. The company issued revenue guidance of -. High institutional ownership can be a signal of strong market trust in this company. Richard A. Gonzalez has an approval rating of 88% among the company's employees. I will conclude this analysis by stating that, based on all available information, market headwinds and tailwinds, competitors, and opportunities via its products and pipeline, I still consider AbbVie to be a strong investment opportunity. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The obvious advantages of a "one and done" permanent cure make them potentially very lucrative therapies. 2023 Market data provided is at least 10-minutes delayed and hosted by Barchart Solutions. View ABBV analyst ratings or view top-rated stocks. The companys operations span 20 countries, treating more than 60 million people and 40 conditions annually. On 14 January 2022, the FDA approved Abbvies arthritis treatment drug, Rinvoq (upadacitinib), for the treatment of adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis. In general, it is important to pay attention to trends, both in the overall market and in the specific sector that a company is in. Disclaimer. The majority of the biosimilar (more sophisticated versions of generic drugs) imitations of Humira that will contest for market share with the original will launch around the middle of 2023, including versions developed by Pfizer (PFE), Boehringer Ingelheim, Organon (OGN), Biocon, Coherus Biosciences (CHRS) and Sandoz, whilst Amgen's (AMGN) Amjevita is permitted to launch in January. 580 employees have rated AbbVie Chief Executive Officer Richard A. Gonzalez on Glassdoor.com. Please log in to your account or sign up in order to add this asset to your watchlist. Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Whether these factors make ABBV a good investment for you or not will depend on your portfolio composition, investment goals and risk profile, among other factors. Finally I can present a target price for AbbVie stock in 2023 using DCF / EBITDA analysis. Data from two Phase 3 induction studies and one maintenance study supported the approval. Assuming there are 2 highly effective drugs for 1 disease, PMedicine seeks to identify which patients respond better to each. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). During the same quarter in the prior year, the firm posted $3.31 EPS. Our daily ratings and market update email newsletter. AbbVie Stock Forecast 2022 - 2025 - 2030 | StockForecast.com GB My detailed modeling suggests there is 15-20% upside to look forward to in the short term and that ABBV stock remains a solid long-term buy opportunity for investors. Skyrizi has also been approved to treat Crohn's Disease, an added bonus and another multi-billion dollar market. AbbVie's stock was trading at $161.61 on January 1st, 2023. I suspect Eye Care is a division AbbVie can turn around given time, and I feel that with regards to oncology, where AbbVie has the strongest pipeline assets - lymphoma bispecific Epcoritamab may be approved to treat large B-cell lymphoma, and peak sales estimates range from $1.5 - $3bn, although AbbVie will not earn all of that since the product is co-developed with Genmab. Investors are already flocking there for a chance at 1,000%+ returns. The surge in revenues can primarily be attributed to its Allergan. The median. The Large Pharma sector performed remarkably well in 2022, with the "Big 8" delivering an average ~15% gain whilst the S&P 500 index fell in value, and the biotech sector was in turmoil. I write about Biotech, Pharma and Healthcare stocks and share investment tips. Nevertheless, AbbVie is clearly under huge pressure to protect its dominance in the immunology markets, and the signs are it has been able to do just that thanks to the launches of 2 new drugs - Skyrizi and Rinvoq. You should never invest money you cannot afford to lose. AbbVie could be the biggest global Pharma by revenue generation in 2028. target price for AbbVie stock based on DCF / EBITDA multiple analysis (my table and assumptions). AbbVie has received a consensus rating of Hold. Popular online brokerages with access to the U.S. stock market include WeBull, Vanguard Brokerage Services, TD Ameritrade, E*TRADE, Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab. Is this happening to you frequently? In 2022, the company will most likely boast 12 "blockbuster" (>$1bn per annum) selling assets, driving ~$48bn of revenues between them, with Humira being the only drug that faces a near term patent expiry, whilst AbbVie is promising at least 6 or 7 major new product launches by 2026. In other words, management believes the LOE of Humira - despite it being the world's best-selling drug - will not hinder growth at the company. Although investing in AbbVie isn't riskless, it is advisable based on what we know about the company. Nineteen analysts predict that AbbVie's share price will increase in the coming year, reaching $165.00.
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